US: Oil prices are useless to predict recessions

In the last four decades, crude oil price movement in the half-year before a recession shows little indication the commodity anticipated the coming slowdown, according to FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani.

Key quotes

“Of the five recessions the US has experienced going back to 1980, two saw price increases in the half-year prior to the onset and three witnessed declines.”

“In three of the above five recessions 1981-82, 2001 and 2007-2009 prices at the finish of the recession were lower than at the start and in 1980 and 1990-1991 they ended higher.”

“The global spread of the virus and the domestic economic closures are expected to wreck demand for crude by an extraordinary amount.  But the plunge in crude oil since January is coincident to the universally anticipated global recession not its forerunner.”