EUR/USD advances to YTD highs near 1.1280

• EUR/USD gains extra traction and approaches 1.1300.
• The selling bias around the dollar picks up further pace.
• US Non-farm Payrolls next of relevance in the docket.

The upbeat tone in the single currency remains well and sound so far at the end of the week and is now lifting EUR/USD to fresh 2020 highs in the proximity of 1.1280.

EUR/USD stronger on USD-selling, looks to data

EUR/USD is adding to Thursday’s gains above the 1.1200 mark and is already trading at shouting distance from 1.1300 the figure, levels last seen in mid-July 2019. Indeed, after bottoming out in the 1.0780/75 band in February, the pair managed to reverse the pessimism and gain around five cents, or nearly 4.70%.

In the meantime, the continuation of the risk aversion mood in the global markets keeps the downside pressure on US yields and boosts the demand for the safe haven JPY, all in detriment of the greenback, which has receded to levels last seen in July 2019 when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

In the calendar, German factory Orders surprised to the upside and expanded at a monthly 5.5% during January, reversing the previous 2.2% contraction. Later in the session, all the attention will be on the US Payrolls, where consensus expects the economy to have created 175K jobs during last month.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD has quickly left behind the key barrier at 1.1200 the figure and advanced to new yearly highs near 1.1280, now refocusing its interest on the 1.1300 mark. In the meantime, the ECB remains vigilant and ready to act in case the outlook deteriorates further in response to the coronavirus and particularly after the Fed cut rates on Tuesday. On another front, the ECB is expected to finish its “strategic review” (announced at its January meeting) by year-end, leaving speculations of any change in the monetary policy before that time pretty flat. Further out, recent better-than-expected results in both Germany and the broader Euroland appear to have re-ignited some optimism among investors regarding the possibility of some recovery in the region and the currency. This view is also supported by rumours of fiscal stimulus in Germany.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.31% at 1.1272 and a break above 1.1277 (2020 high Mar.6) would target 1.1286 (high Jul.12 2019) en route to 1.1347 (high Jun.13 2019). On the flip side, initial contention is seen at 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) seconded by 1.1098 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1041 (55-day SMA).