NZ: Tentative signs of stabilising in migration – ANZ

ANZ analysts note that the New Zealand’s annual net migration reportedly picked up to 61,600 in February, around 2,400 shy of its record-high in June 2016.

Key Quotes

“On a three-month moving sum basis, net migration has lifted by 3,600 (sa) with departures down 1,450 and arrivals up 2,150.”

“Surprisingly, revisions to net migration data this month (a consequence of last year’s change to the outcomes-based collection methodology) didn’t change the face-value story from what last month’s data were showing. That is, the net migration cycle has turned a corner and annual inflows are trending higher. However, we remain sceptical. Economic momentum has slowed, and with population growth such a dominant driver of GDP growth this cycle it doesn’t make sense that the economy is slowing while the trajectory for net migration is shooting for 2016 cycle-highs.”

“However, its early days and we’re not taking a lot of signal from these data.”

“In part, this lift in net migrants may turn out to be a misallocation of total people as migrants rather than short-term visitors. While short-term arrivals of overseas visitors remain at a high level (3.87m visitors over the past year), they have fallen for the third consecutive month to be down 12,000 on a three-month sum basis. Monthly arrivals for February are 16,000 less than seen in November 2018.”