Biz yalnızca bir aracı kurumdan fazlasıyız. Analiz etmek, işlem yapmak ve büyümek için ihtiyacınız olan her şeyi tek bir yerde sunan, hepsi bir arada bir işlem ekosistemiyiz. İşlem deneyiminizi bir üst seviyeye taşımaya hazır mısınız?
Analysts at Rabobank, forecast the EUR/GBP pair to reach 0.88 in 1M, 0.89 in 6M and 0.84 in 12M.
Key Quotes:
“Despite Brexit-related uncertainty and the ongoing debate regarding Bank of England policy, much of the price action in the GBP crosses recently has been reactionary. The month ahead brings both a BoE policy meeting and an EU summit at which the UK has promised to offer its latest vision of the post Brexit UK/EU economic relationship. Although GBP may steal back some of the limelight, the budget promises of Italy’s new government are set to re-shape the perceived risks associated with the EUR, which could dominate market focus over the summer. Even though Brexit-related uncertainty is GBP negative, upside potential for EUR/GBP may be limited if investors anticipate a defiant tone from Italy’s populist government. As a consequence we expect GBP/USD will be a better medium to express GBP negative views.”
“We estimate that in a ‘worst case scenario’ the government’s policies would need additional financing of between EUR100 bln and EUR152 bln a year. This equates to around 5.8% and 8.8% of GDP and is set against a backdrop of a huge debt pile in the region of 133% of GDP. A stand-off between the Italian government and Brussels on the budget thus looms. Given the risk that anti-EU sentiment could extend in Italy, this does not present a positive environment for the EUR.”
“It has been our view for a while that as the Brexit deadline nears, anxiety about a lack of clarity on the future trading arrangement between the UK and EU had the potential to weaken the pound and push EUR/GBP towards the 0.89 area by the autumn. The risk of a stand-off between Rome and Brussels on Italy’s budget brings in some downward risk to this forecasts. We have already revised lower our EUR/USD forecast to 1.12 from 1.15 on the back of Italian politics and we will be watching events closely in the coming weeks with respect to the outlook for EUR/GBP. For now we would favour expressing a negative GBP view vs. the USD. We see risk of GBP/USD reaching 1.28 by year end.”
