US: Uncertainty around Iran, the JCPOA and oil – Nomura

Recent developments have placed a significant amount of market attention on the Iran nuclear agreement, according to analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“Two key risks to the US and world economic outlooks include:

1. The US declining to issue a waiver for the upcoming Iran sanctions renewal, which would endanger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, frequently referred to as the “Iran deal”). Overall, we think it is more likely that President Trump will announce that he will not sign the Iran oil sanctions waiver today (60%) than him signing the waiver but insisting on changes going forward (40%).
2. The possibility of greater tension and conflict in the Middle East.”

“Oil prices have moved up this year, in part reflecting concerns over President Trump’s Iran policies. The increased prices place a slight drag on the US economic outlook. However, the president’s Iran policies may also increase the tail risk of further escalation of Mid-East tensions that could place significant upward pressure on oil prices.”