US NFP will come in closer to the true underlying trend near 175k – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the US nonfarm payroll volatility has been elevated of late and we think that, following two extreme reads (May to the low side and June to the high side), NFP will come in closer to the true underlying trend near 175k.

Key Quotes

“Note that this pace is well above the breakeven pace needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, and we anticipate an improvement in that metric to 4.8% on the month as well. With jobless claims near all-time lows and job openings near all-time highs, the pipeline of employment looks robust near-term.”