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Forex Flash: China: Exports Up Imports Down - Nomura
Nomura Zhiwei Zhang notes that Chinese exports rose by 21.8% y-o-y in February (Consensus: 8.1%;), despite the unfavorable base effect, namely the lunar new year fell in February this year but January last year.
He feels that this is inconsistent with weak exports from Korea (-8.6% y-o-y) and Taiwan (-15.8%) in February, and the weak new export orders index in recent China PMI readings. He believes the surprise may be down to capital inflows disguised as trade flows, where exporters may overstate their exports and understate their imports to move capital into China, circumventing capital controls. Further, he adds that Import growth was surprisingly low, at -15.2% (Consensus: -8.5%). and the overall trade surplus fell to USD15bn (Consensus: USD6.9bn).
