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2 Feb 2016
JPY: Near-term macro picture to remain weak – Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, notes that inflation expectations among Japanese bond investors declined further in January, according to Nikkei Quick.
Key Quotes
“The survey was conducted on 26-28 January, before the BOJ decision last Friday. Thus the result does not reflect the impact of the BOJ’s easing decision on expectations. 10yr inflation expectations declined to 1.07% from 1.10% the previous month, the lowest in three months. Short-term inflation expectations slowed more significantly.
We judge the BOJ decision last Friday to be highly JPY negative, re-accelerating USD/JPY appreciation. In its quarterly outlook report, the BOJ showed a renewed positive assessment on the impact of JPY weakness on inflation. The Bank said JPY weakness will have a positive inflation impact not only via higher import prices, but also via improvement in the output gap and inflation expectations. We agree with this assessment, and believe JPY weakness is necessary for Japan to achieve 2% inflation.
Nonetheless, in the short term, Japanese inflation will remain subdued, as JPY weakness will only have a positive impact on inflation with a certain time lag. Inflation expectations among households and corporates have already slowed, which will weaken domestic inflation pressures for the time being. Our economists expect the Q4 GDP growth rate, scheduled on 15 February, to be negative at -0.9% saar, pointing to stagnant improvement in the output gap in 2015. Although the BOJ has embarked on its new policy framework, incoming information will likely be disappointing.
The BOJ decided to ease proactively and may not react immediately to the likely weak data. The proactive action has avoided a negative impact on market sentiment, as with further deterioration in inflation and economic data, failure to act could have eroded the BOJ’s credibility. In addition, expected weakness in inflation and economic data will sustain market expectations for BOJ easing, discouraging speculators from adding JPY long positions.”
Key Quotes
“The survey was conducted on 26-28 January, before the BOJ decision last Friday. Thus the result does not reflect the impact of the BOJ’s easing decision on expectations. 10yr inflation expectations declined to 1.07% from 1.10% the previous month, the lowest in three months. Short-term inflation expectations slowed more significantly.
We judge the BOJ decision last Friday to be highly JPY negative, re-accelerating USD/JPY appreciation. In its quarterly outlook report, the BOJ showed a renewed positive assessment on the impact of JPY weakness on inflation. The Bank said JPY weakness will have a positive inflation impact not only via higher import prices, but also via improvement in the output gap and inflation expectations. We agree with this assessment, and believe JPY weakness is necessary for Japan to achieve 2% inflation.
Nonetheless, in the short term, Japanese inflation will remain subdued, as JPY weakness will only have a positive impact on inflation with a certain time lag. Inflation expectations among households and corporates have already slowed, which will weaken domestic inflation pressures for the time being. Our economists expect the Q4 GDP growth rate, scheduled on 15 February, to be negative at -0.9% saar, pointing to stagnant improvement in the output gap in 2015. Although the BOJ has embarked on its new policy framework, incoming information will likely be disappointing.
The BOJ decided to ease proactively and may not react immediately to the likely weak data. The proactive action has avoided a negative impact on market sentiment, as with further deterioration in inflation and economic data, failure to act could have eroded the BOJ’s credibility. In addition, expected weakness in inflation and economic data will sustain market expectations for BOJ easing, discouraging speculators from adding JPY long positions.”