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According to William O'Donnell at RBS, “We continue to see a near-term 1.70% to 2.11% range for 10-year US Treasuries. Key support remains at 2.11% for 10yrs, while the first resistance is at 1.90% - 1.93%. We recommend to watch for the ascending bear channel lines (1.93% in 10s and 3.10% in bonds) – breaks through could extend the rally while a close above 2.11% in 10s opens up 2.30%.”
Treasuries have cheapened further overnight with 10y note yields now sitting a few bp for 10-month highs as the markets fret about today's release of the FOMC Minutes. Very dovish Minutes from the Bank of England were outweighed by a barely covered 10y Bund auction and a solid performance by risk assets (peripheral spreads up to 8bp tighter led by good inflows).
Asian stock markets were led higher by Korean shares, European stocks are mixed and S&P futures are showing +0.5pt here at 7am. Our overnight Treasury flows saw asset managers buying of 5yrs versus FV futures, central bank selling in 3-years, European bank selling in 10-years and a fund manager buying in 30-yrs. Overnight Treasury broker volume perked up to 114% of the 10-day average.
