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21 Apr 2015
Draghi got tested on key questions - BAML
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that during last week's ECB press conference, President Draghi was tested on two key questions:
Key Quotes:
"1.) Can the ECB cut rates again? 2.) Will the ECB taper QE purchases before September 2016? Draghi answered both questions with a resounding "no". Interestingly, the market does not seem to believe the answer to the first of these questions, but trusts the ECB with the second."
"The fact that over €750bn notional of government bonds trade considerably through the ECB's deposit facility rate in a part of the curve where the ECB is not active is consistent with the market continuing to attach a meaningful probability to rate-cut scenarios. In fact, in the volatility space, swaptions imply a 25% probability that 5y rates end-up negative in a year's time, from 19bp currently."
Key Quotes:
"1.) Can the ECB cut rates again? 2.) Will the ECB taper QE purchases before September 2016? Draghi answered both questions with a resounding "no". Interestingly, the market does not seem to believe the answer to the first of these questions, but trusts the ECB with the second."
"The fact that over €750bn notional of government bonds trade considerably through the ECB's deposit facility rate in a part of the curve where the ECB is not active is consistent with the market continuing to attach a meaningful probability to rate-cut scenarios. In fact, in the volatility space, swaptions imply a 25% probability that 5y rates end-up negative in a year's time, from 19bp currently."