AUD/USD: RBA’s guidance, labor market data – OCBC

Australian Dollar (AUD) near-term fate hinges on RBA (meeting on Tue 1230pm SGT), AU wage price index, labor market data and USD moves this week. AUD was last at 0.6520 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bearish momentum show signs of fading

"Softer 2Q CPI, PPI and decline in job advertisements had paved the way for RBA to cut cash rate at the next meeting tomorrow. For the year remaining, cash rate futures pointed to about 62bps cut."

"But it remains uncertain if RBA language will tilt more dovish or if the MPC prefers to stick to current 'cautious and gradual' pace of rate cut. A less dovish or 'no hurry' type of language/ guidance may frustrate AUD bears, but Thu labor market data will also be key to watch."

"Bearish momentum on daily chart show signs of fading while the rise in RSI faded. Resistance at 0.6550 levels. Support at 0.65, 0.6430 levels."