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10 Jun 2025
EUR extending consolidation in low1.14s – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is also entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the US Dollar (USD) with a modest recovery of mild late Asian/early European session weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Anticipating support on fading of ECB’s easing bias
"The release of second tier euro area investor confidence data has offered little in terms of price action, and there have been no major releases from either Germany or France. The calendar remains empty for much of this week, leaving the focus squarely centered on the heavy schedule of ECB speakers."
"The latest comments from Governing Council member Villeroy summarize our view—that the ECB is reluctantly neutral and likely at its terminal rate for this easing cycle. Villeroy said that the ECB is in a ‘favorable zone’ but that it is not static and GC member Rehn stated that the ECB must be ready to act as and when needed."
"We see scope for EUR strength on the back of relative central bank policy as markets fade their expectations for cuts. Markets have softened their expectations for easing but are still pricing a sizeable 26bpts by year end."