EUR: Insights into the April ECB pause? – ING

It looks as though EUR/USD can stay relatively supported for the short term, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD can see a nudge back up to the 1.0930/50 area

"As above, US equities may well keep the dollar on the back foot, and in Europe, the focus will be on fiscal stimulus, defence spending and whether the European Central Bank pauses in its easing cycle at its 17 April meeting." 

"Potentially supportive for the euro this week are: a) Trump and Putin making any progress on Ukraine ceasefire talks, b) the German lower house passing reforms to the debt brake and approving a large fiscal stimulus, and c) ECB President Christine Lagarde potentially tilting the market towards a pause in April when the market is still pricing 14bp of rate cuts at that April meeting."

"The above could see EUR/USD nudge back up to the 1.0930/50 area. EUR/USD could well come under pressure in April as Washington pushes through its reciprocal trade tariffs. 1.05-1.10 is our call for the EUR/USD trading range in the second quarter."