EUR: Looking for a lifeline – ING

EUR/USD recovered some ground on Friday, in line with our expectations. From a valuation standpoint, there is still short-term upside potential for the pair, which at current levels embeds a risk premium of around 1.5-2.0%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Risks remain skewed towards the 1.02 area

“The effect of the moderately re-tightened EUR:USD short-term swap spread may, however, prove insufficient to drive the euro back to the 1.040 mark sustainably. We suspect that unless there are some tentatively positive developments in the eurozone growth narrative, any EUR/USD rebound is destined to be quite short-lived, and risks over the coming weeks remain skewed towards the 1.02 area.”

“The recent rise in gas prices after the Ukraine pipeline shutdown is currently pairing with protectionism fears, and any lifeline to the euro at this point would likely need to come from data.”